Research

Papers

My research measures central bank communication and turns it into economic quantities: indices of the monetary stance, decompositions of inflation expectations, and estimates of how policy language moves markets.

Publications

• Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Geopolitical Uncertainty

  with J. Chadha, C. Macchiarelli, S. Goel and A. Hantzsche

  Journal of International Money and Finance, 162, 2026Published

  Scholar record

Working papers

• Narratives Shape the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

  with J. Benchimol

  CAMA Working Paper 2026-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU

  Abstract

  We ask how the narratives central banks and the media use around inflation propagate along the term structure of inflation expectations, distinguishing the horizons at which language moves expectations from those where it does not.

• Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Brexit

  with J. Chadha, C. Macchiarelli, S. Goel and A. Hantzsche

  IMF Working Paper WP/24/160, 2024

• Monetary and Oil Shocks on the Italian Energy System

  Working paper, 2025

• The Role of Central Bank Knowledge and Trust for the Public’s Inflation Expectations

  with T. Schmidt

  Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 32/2018

  SSRN

  Abstract

  Using a representative survey of individuals living in Germany, we measure what the public actually knows about the ECB and the Bundesbank and how much it trusts them, and show how both shape inflation expectations. Most respondents report good knowledge of the two institutions, but only around a fifth name price stability as their objective.

• Bremia: A Study of the Impact of Brexit Based on Bond Prices

  with J. Chadha and A. Hantzsche

  NIESR, mimeo, 2018

• Turning Minutes into Measures: Text-Mining MPC Communication

  with A. Hantzsche

  National Institute Economic Review, 246(1), F22–F23, 2018

Work in progress

• FED’s Inflation Narrative and Inflation Markets Decomposition

  with J. Benchimol

  2026

• Demand and Supply Inflation Factors from the Bank of England’s Talk

  with J. Chadha, C. Macchiarelli, S. Goel and A. Hantzsche

  2026

Policy and blog writing

• The Impact of Brexit on Bond Prices

  UK in a Changing Europe, 2020

• The Impact of Central Bank Communication on Private Inflation Expectations

  John Cabot University Seminar, 2019

• Turning Minutes into Measures: Text-Mining MPC Communication

  with A. Hantzsche

  NIESR Blog, 2018

Selected talks

• 2020UK in a Changing Europe Virtual Conference on the Economics of Brexit for Early Career Researchers, University of Oxford
• 2019Joint Research Centre – CAS Workshop on Big Data and Economic Forecasting, European Commission
• 2019Royal Economic Society Annual Conference
• 2019MMF PhD Conference, City, University of London (with the Bank of England and Birkbeck College)
• 2019Seminar, John Cabot University, Rome
• 2017Internal seminar, Economic Research Centre, Deutsche Bundesbank
• 2017Royal Economic Society Symposium of Junior Researchers, University of Bristol

© 2026 Sathya Mellina. Views expressed here are my own and do not represent those of Enel Group or any other institution.